A Single Case, Lasting Consequences

Dobbs and the Legitimacy of the ‘Least Dangerous Branch’

Bianca Martins de Oliveira and Rebecca Gill

University of Nevada Las Vegas

Judicial Legitimacy

  • diffuse vs. specific support

    • (e.g., Gibson, Caldeira, and Baird 1998)

  • the “reservoir” model

    • (Easton 1965; 1975)

  • the impact of ideology?

    • (Gibson and Nelson 2015 v. Bartels & Johnson 2015)

  • the impact of one case?

The Supreme Court

Enter Dobbs

  • Roe + Casey
  • the setup
  • the soft launch

Can Dobbs Decrease Diffuse Support?

  • what would we see?
  • what would that mean?
  • where to find it?

Hypotheses

  • H1: Individuals who report stronger negative emotional reactions to Dobbs will exhibit lower levels of diffuse support for the Supreme Court.

  • H2: Among Republicans, negative reactions to Dobbs will be associated with lower in diffuse support for the Supreme Court.

Western States

AZ CO NV NM UT Weighted Mean Legitimacy Score 0.39 0.40 0.41 0.42 0.43 0.44 Source: Western States Survey (CSED) 2024

Diffuse Support

Descriptive Statistics: Dependent Variables
Statistic N Mean St. Dev. Min Max
Legitimacy Scale 3,224 0.396 0.251 0.000 1.000
Abolition 3,224 0.590 0.338 0.000 1.000
Too Political 3,224 0.325 0.305 0.000 1.000
Curbing 3,224 0.469 0.330 0.000 1.000
Partiality 3,224 0.319 0.305 0.000 1.000
Term Limits 3,224 0.278 0.325 0.000 1.000

Predictors

Descriptive Statistics: Predictors
Statistic N Mean St. Dev. Min Max
Dobbs Upset 3,224 4.745 2.256 1 7
Democrat 3,224 0.388 0.487 0 1
Independent 3,224 0.307 0.461 0 1
Republican 3,224 0.305 0.460 0 1
Institutional Trust 3,224 0.491 0.202 0.000 1.000
Attends Services 3,224 2.702 1.686 1 6
Political Interest 3,224 3.141 0.957 1 4
Female Respondent 3,224 0.509 0.500 0 1
Age 3,224 48.670 17.700 19 97
Education 3,224 3.597 1.487 1 6
Family Income 3,224 6.658 3.495 1 16
Child at Home 3,224 1.723 0.448 1 2
Arizona 3,224 0.337 0.473 0 1
Colorado 3,224 0.284 0.451 0 1
Nevada 3,224 0.134 0.341 0 1
New Mexico 3,224 0.127 0.333 0 1
Utah 3,224 0.119 0.324 0 1

Dobbs Upset

669 317 234 831 221 345 1383 0 500 1000 1500 extremely pleased moderately pleased slightly pleased neither pleased nor upset slightly upset moderately upset extremely upset Count

Ugly Table

WLS Models of Legitimacy and its Component Parts
Overall Legitimacy Abolition Too Political Curbing Partiality Term Limits
Dobbs Upset -0.029*** 0.011 -0.041*** -0.026*** -0.038*** -0.051***
(0.005) (0.006) (0.006) (0.007) (0.007) (0.006)
Republican Party ID -0.042*** -0.055*** -0.035*** -0.041*** -0.046*** -0.032***
(0.006) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008) (0.008)
Independent Party ID -0.025*** -0.058*** -0.012 -0.025** -0.014 -0.016
(0.007) (0.009) (0.008) (0.009) (0.008) (0.009)
Dobbs Upset × Republican 0.260*** 0.405*** 0.185*** 0.282*** 0.231*** 0.199***
(0.036) (0.045) (0.044) (0.047) (0.046) (0.045)
Dobbs Upset × Independent 0.318*** 0.409*** 0.272*** 0.335*** 0.344*** 0.230***
(0.039) (0.049) (0.047) (0.048) (0.050) (0.048)
Institutional Trust 0.001 -0.019 0.055 -0.033 0.076* -0.073*
(0.026) (0.035) (0.033) (0.035) (0.034) (0.034)
Attends Services 0.001 0.001 0.002 -0.001 0.005 -0.002
(0.003) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004) (0.004)
Political Interest -0.002 0.010 -0.004 0.012 -0.015* -0.015*
(0.005) (0.007) (0.006) (0.007) (0.007) (0.007)
Female Respondent -0.010 -0.015 0.014 -0.019 0.006 -0.036**
(0.009) (0.013) (0.012) (0.013) (0.012) (0.013)
Age 0.002*** 0.004*** -0.00004 0.003*** 0.001*** 0.001***
(0.0003) (0.0004) (0.0004) (0.0004) (0.0004) (0.0004)
Education 0.010** 0.024*** -0.003 0.018*** -0.003 0.012**
(0.003) (0.005) (0.004) (0.005) (0.004) (0.004)
Family Income 0.004* 0.008*** 0.001 0.005** 0.002 0.003
(0.001) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002) (0.002)
Child at Home 0.026* 0.034* 0.027* 0.036* 0.004 0.028
(0.011) (0.016) (0.014) (0.015) (0.017) (0.016)
Constant 0.267*** 0.020 0.384*** 0.193*** 0.335*** 0.401***
(0.042) (0.055) (0.051) (0.057) (0.055) (0.054)
State Fixed Effects (joint F-test) n.s. * n.s. n.s. n.s. n.s.
N 3,224 3,224 3,224 3,224 3,224 3,224
R2 0.403 0.238 0.257 0.275 0.318 0.326
Significance levels: * p < 0.05, ** p < 0.01, *** p < 0.001. Sample weights included. Robust standard errors (HC3) in parentheses.

Overall Model

State Fixed Effects Child at Home Family Income Education Age Female Respondent Political Interest Attends Services Institutional Trust Dobbs Upset × Independent Dobbs Upset × Republican Independent Party ID Republican Party ID Dobbs Upset 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 Coefficient Estimate

Party and Dobbs

0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 2 4 6 Dobbs Upset Level Predicted Diffuse Support Group Dem Ind Rep

An Empty Reservoir?